Why Society Would Collapse in 3 Months If IRAN Closed 'The Strait Of Hormuz'

If Iran actually goes through with shutting the Strait of Hormuz… Western economies would snap.

I’m not exaggerating. You’re talking about 25% of the world’s oil supply gone overnight. $300 oil, food inflation exploding, entire sectors freezing up.

And the scary part? Not one shot needs to be fired. Just a blockade. That’s all it takes.

This is a scenario I’ve run the models on… and I’ll walk you through exactly how fast it would all unravel. 

Want to protect your savings before the next shock hits?
Learn how gold and silver can safeguard your wealth even when everything else breaks.

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Transcript

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if this actually happens, uh, we are going to get absolutely annihilated across Western countries. See, sometimes when it comes to military conflict, you don't actually need to be involved yourselves to even fire a single bullet to be massively affected. So the research I've been doing today, I've been going through the charts, really going over a lot of scenarios, so this is gonna be a juicy one. This video, uh, I think you're gonna get a lot from this because a lot of the comments and questions coming in are. Well, what actually happens? Neil, if, let me just tell you. So this is Ismail Kari. Uh, he is the Iranian Parliament and head of the Parliamentary Committee on Defense and National Security, and he's threatened to close the straight of Horus. Now you might say, well, I don't care. Why does that even affect me? It would affect you because this moves up to 25% of the world's oil supply. Now you think that's anywhere from 17 to 19 million barrels of oil a day. Sometimes it can be 20 million barrels. And this is really, really serious because remember, oil feeds everything. It feeds it, it's even involved in your job. You wouldn't think it, but your job also has, uh, oil energy supplied into it. Doesn't matter what you do, whether you work in agriculture, whether you work in an office, um, a factory, it makes no difference. We are all affected by this. So I've run some models today as to what could actually take place. I've gone off the, uh, oil charts as well here. I mean, everything's just, this is really worrying, I will say, and I hope they don't close it. I really do. I hope we have a diplomatic solution to this, but if they did close it, you'd see oil prices hit$150,$200. You could even, in a worst case scenario, see$300. Barrel of oil. Now that would basically collapse society. It would take a little bit of time, and by a little bit of time, talking months, not years, but society would completely collapse. You would have mass civil unrest on the streets in no time. So let me, before you roll your eyes at that, let me out, you know, lay out all of the evidence for this here, which I've done for you because. This, I mean, this would, here's an example. It would feed into your trucking, your shipping, farming equipment, food prices, energy bills, shipping costs. Inflation would just explode, go through the roof. And again, you can always see this in the price of gold. So this is the gold chart here. I'm just gonna. Throw it on screen if I can here as well. But this is the gold chart here, and it's showing you the instability. I've been talking about my gold and silver course for a long time here. But you look at the, the gold price, it's 3,400 and uh,$3,405, but we've seen a peak this month of$3,450. What is this telling you? It is telling you. The investors, large institutions, even central banks, everyone is preparing for the worst case scenario. Even before this kicked off. So, I mean, I, I dunno what else to, to, to say on the, the, the gold aspect in the program. By the way, the rapid cash flow program that has been on sale for the last week or so, that sale has now ended, so you can't get the 90% price on that. Now it is finished, uh, we ended that this weekend, but you can still get the, um, discount on the gold and silver investor program that. Uh, getting close to ending the, the recordings on that now. So if you are gonna get it, don't delay. Get in there now, get 90% off that program. But let's get into, back to this,'cause this is really important. Crude oil. So we did see a spike. It sort of, it did jump up and then it is dropped back down slightly, but. We are seeing, what is it, 70? It's about$70 hovering around$70 at the minute, which is manageable. It's within that range, 70 up to$85. It's a manageable range, but let's go through these different scenarios then. Realistic world, uh, worst case scenarios. So$85 is not a huge deal. We can, we can handle that. This is the current average range due to, uh, global supply and demand. Balancing. So no issues here at all. Now, if we had a partial closure, now I know you can't see this graph, but I'm just gonna talk, talk through it as we go through it. Um, because I had to create this graph for you. It's not something I can, it's not on a website or anything. Um,$120 a barrel. Then this would be a partial closure. Intermittent disruptions here, what would we see? Limited skirmishes, drone missile threats, et cetera. We'd see insurance rates spike, which would feed into costs. We'd see five to 10% short term disruption in the oil supply as well. So that's another thing that we would see. Again, it's a problem. It would feed into inflation, but it's manageable. Okay. Now, what if we got two, two to four weeks of a foreclosure? This is where you'd see$180 a barrel. This is where things start to get serious. What would we see at this sort of range? Then you would see the US military intervening. The US Navy would intervene and they would start to take action in the area. So that's, that is potential. That's, that's two to four weeks. You would see that happening, you'd see an absolute panic in the futures market. You'd have to really be careful with your stock market portfolio. Uh, strategic reserves would be tapped with limited relief, so all these strategic reserves, they would last for so long, but they're not gonna last forever. You'd see a short term inflation surge as well. Okay. What about the fourth option then? This is$250 a barrel. This is your one to three month foreclosure. This is where we're starting to get really, really serious. If this did take place, you would see a major energy supply shock globally. You would see. You would see scenes like you would see on movies at this point. Uh, oil rich nations would, uh, start to gain an advantage. We're gonna link this to the seventies. You remember the 1973, uh, OPEC shock. Then you would see severe inflation and a global recession would begin. That's a fact. A global recession would kick in similar to what we saw in 2008. The fifth then, and the worst scenario here would be a prolonged conflict. This would be three plus months of this continuing conflict with the, the straight close. You would see a regional war,$300, a barrel of oil would be achievable at that point. Shipping would be blocked, tankers would be attacked. Western military would respond. Iran would retaliate, uh, regionally as well. I. So what you'd see at this point is a larger scale military conflict or war. We would now see not just a global recession, but a global depression at this point and major stagflation. So this is ladies and gents, how quickly this would spread around the world. And let's just continue on with what the impact this would be on major economies. Then let's start with the United States, because my audience is predominantly 35% us, 35% uk, and then it drops from there with other countries. But let's do the US and uk. And gas prices, eight to$10 a gallon. That is what you would see consumer spending would drop and we'd then see interest rate hikes, uh, being paused or reversed. Consumer spending is 60 to 70% of the GDP of the us so as that dropped us GDP and it's already remember, um, dropped off a cliff because of the tariffs and all the new changes. This would be really bad for the US and you could see foreign actors start to take advantage of this and deliberately dump treasuries and just reinforce this cycle all the way down. It would be very bad for the us. That is why I think. President Trump will probably get involved and broker a peace deal before it's too late. If he doesn't, and he relies on other countries to try and broker this peace deal, I, I, I just don't see it. I, I don't see, I think this would get really serious very, very quickly. I. Of course us as well. Stock markets would not just fall, but they would fall very, very hard. Defense and energy stocks though, would surge. So that would be your flip if you saw that about to happen. You could move into defense and, and, um, more defense and energy stocks, I would say would be your sort of. Um, diversification there. GDP contraction would be huge. Transport logistics would explode even, uh, more than we're seeing now. What would happen in the United Kingdom then? What would we see over in the uk? Well, remember the UK is already very vulnerable from energy shocks since 2022, so going back three years now, because of these self-inflicted problems the UK did to themselves, you would see heating and fuel prices spike even more. So UK has some of the highest energy prices in the world now because they did all these stupid things with the energy supply, you know, and it doesn't matter which side of the fence you sit on with all this net zero, I'm not behind net zero, just, just for full, uh, clarity and and transparency here. But even if you are, you know, it doesn't make any sense what they did with all of that, because they could have. They could have built up their renewables and, and got the grid going, and then they could have blown up the nuclear reactor and blown up the coal plants. You notice they didn't close them by the way. They blew them up because, so there was no way back. So this is, this is the problem. Now the UK's got these crazy energy prices. Now, if this, and you are already gonna see higher energy, by the way, as a result, just of the conflict that we're seeing, this is, this is even if we have this resolve this week, you're still gonna see some higher energy prices because they've already dipped in at the beginning and it's gonna take time for them to come through. You could see massive stagflation risk. I think this is a very real risk political unrest. The uk, I would say, is the biggest risk of this at the moment because we're already seeing political unrest. So this would just tip people over the edge. You'd see people on the streets, even people who weren't protesting and marching. You'd see them on the street, European Union. Then what could we see there? Well, you've gotta think the u the EU has a very heavy reliance on imported oil, um, and other energy. So you'd see this massive trade deficit worsen as a starting point. But who would be the two biggest co countries that were affected? Germany and France, they would see massive contraction almost immediately, uh, especially Germany thinking they're going to move to this, this energy wartime economy, uh, France as well. They're outta money. France is a, is a, uh, not a collapsing economy, but definitely a dwindling economy. This, this powerhouse that they were is dwindling, um, and will continue to do so. The Euro could weaken, um, further against the dollar, worsening the import inflation as well. But I think the biggest one you would want to, you're probably interested in, is the civil unrest aspect of all of this. So let's talk about that and how that would actually occur, because you would want to be prepared for something like that. Of course. So that would be us would be. One UK would be what you'd call your gas prices, your gasoline prices in the uk. In Europe, you'd call that your petrol or diesel prices. US eight to$10 a gallon, um, two pound 53 pounds a liter in the uk. So you would see, and it would even be higher in EU countries because of their reliance on, on oil imports. So it'd be even higher that alone. If you think back to, do you remember the yellow vest protests in France and, and, um, if you remember what took place there? Macron eventually backed down because there were so many people on the streets that it was, it, it. If that would've continued, you would've just seen a massive breakdown. So that would be a big one. Look at the yellow vest and if you wanna sort of corollary there, look at the yellow vest, what happened? But you would see heating and energy bills spiking, especially in the colder EU climates as we go into winter as well. Uh, energy dependent nations like Germany used to be. Germany used to be a powerhouse of energy, and now they're dependent. On other, other countries to supply them low and middle income households who are already stretched as well from these prior inflation waves that were created between 2020 and 2023. So the period, um, you would just see low and income, middle households just, just not collapse, but they would fall very, very, um, they'd fall a a lot further, um, with problems there. Why would this lead to unrest? Because people take to the streets when they can't afford to get work. They're unemployed when they can't heat their homes, when they can't feed their families, people take to the streets. Who do they blame? The politicians, obviously, a lot of the time it is the, the politicians who are to blame with a lot of. With a lot of things that take place, but the job losses is a big one. And the business closures, high energy costs would hit the small businesses, and that would be transport, retail, manufacturing, agriculture. You'd then see what we talked about the other day, employment scarring, because as people stop spending. You would see the, um, uh, employment scaring cycle. So the more people that get fired, the less spending in the economy. And that would be a double hit for the us, which is a GDP driven economy based on consumer spending, uh, layoffs. Um, by the way, please subscribe to the channel. If you've watched me. Uh, sometimes people leave comments and say, I watch, I've watched you so many times, uh, I'm not a subscriber. Or Subscribe, please click that subscribe button. Uh, layoffs would. Would law, uh, lead to people marching on the streets entire sectors would grind to a halt. I mean, food prices as well, I think is the main one, not point number three on this, because oil affects everything. Transport, fertilizers, farming equipment. Um, already high grocery bills would spike to, um, 20, I'd say 20 to 30%, um, or more in a matter of months. 20 to 30% would be my forecast. 25% would be about the median there, you would see within months. So we're recording this in June. By hitting autumn or fall, you would see another 25% on top of your grocery bills. This is, this is serious ladies and gents. This is what we could see. And if you think back to when we've seen, uh, previous periods of unrest, what has led to that? Do you remember? The Arab Springs and all these other things? It's often food. Or it's, it's the energy. People don't think of this or they say, oh, Neil, I don't care. So what if the oil price goes up? Oh, it doesn't bother me. People don't real. And then when the food price goes upward, the other things go up. They say, oh, these supermarkets price gouging and, and all the other stuff. And they don't realize, no, it was the oil. The oil price went up and fed into everything. Yeah. I'm sure some of these supermarkets price couch as well. Let's, uh, let's not, uh, throw that one out, but, but this is usually one of the biggest reasons here. So what could the government do? Well, this is where I think especially the, the current UK and European, I don't think the US governments would make this mistake under the Trump admin that the minute, but I do think the UK and EU. Governments would be very protectionist of themselves. I don't think they'd be pro protectionist of the people. Uh. And you can see that anyway, with everything going on at the minute, um, we're gonna be starting a new video series soon, by the way, going to different cities, uh, UK cities because they're, they're just the problems there are so, so bad. If you would love to be a tour of a, uh, to take me around your city or your town, please send an email, write me a little bit of a, you know, maybe write me a page as to why you think you'd be, you'd be great to do that. And, uh, and, um, you know, a page there about a page and, and some of the areas and stuff. And I think that'd be great. I'd love to have you as the tour guy taking me around some of these towns and cities. So, uh, yeah, just drop, drop an email. Okay, so we talked about that. Governments, then, let's get back to governments. I think they would go to either austerity or mismanagement. That could be bad'cause they could respond with taxes, rationing, strict regulations. They could, um. You know, price caps, subsidies, they could, they could actually cause more shortages leading to even more unrest. And we've seen before people very quickly turn on the leaders when these things are mismanaged. So let's give you a couple of historical. Examples then. Okay. I also did put in loads of stuff about riots and looting and all this sort of stuff, um, which would've sounded crazy back in the day if I'd have said this would lead to riots and loot. We see this every day. Now you only have to turn on X and you see that every post is a riot or, or lootings or something like that and protest. I mean, this is the the fourth turning cycle we find ourselves in. So let's look at some historic parallels. So I've got three for you here. Number one would be the 1973 oil crisis. This was fuel shortages, long lines, economic stagnation. This was the Nixon era distrust. Um, and 73 really was a key year, do you remember? And 71 as well. So 71, 73, 2 key years, um, coming off the gold standard. Uh, talk about that in the new gold course. We actually break that down. I analyze what happened there. And chart it and show you all the things that resulted as a, because of that and how the French sent their military, uh, their naval ships to collect the gold and, and it was just a crazy chaotic time. Uh, we had the 2010 Arab Springs, and then we had France 2018 yellow vest. So let's, let's go over these. Let's have a look at some historical, uh, parallels here. If oil does hit two 50 plus a barrel, Western societies would face a serious breakdown of order. That's, that's not me just saying it. That is a fact. It, it's, it's clear, these three examples here, you always see this taking place, so make sure you're prepared for that. If you see this, and again, I'm not saying this will happen as a fact, I'm saying this is very. Possible it could happen. You've gotta watch this carefully. My job is just to prepare you and say, this is a worst case scenario. This is the best case scenario. If you see these things happening, take the relevant action. Uh, of course. That's how I see it. Other people say, oh, doom and gloom, alarmist, this guy, oh, bad news, or whatever. They, whatever they say, you know, always makes me smile when I see all this stuff. But anyway, so what's history shown us over and over again? Almost. Every single time this triggers recessions, political upheaval, inflation, and even more war, and it has social and geopolitical consequences every time. Ladies and gentlemen, it's not like, oh, well maybe there's a 10% chance no, it's almost a hundred percent chance. 1973 oil crisis. Then, so what did we see? Oil went from$3 a barrel all the way up to$12 a barrel that is quadrupled. Yes. Quadrupled in price. Can you imagine if that happened today from this$75 a barrel? Where are we today? 70 a barrel taking us up to two 80 a barrel. Can you imagine that you, everything would just, everything would just stop working. Industry would grind to a halt. And this actually took place. This was the, when OPEC imposed an oil embargo on the US and allies because they were supporting who? Ah, interesting. Israel during the Yom Kippur War I. What are we seeing again right now? In fact, STAMA has just announced we, we'll come onto to a couple of this, that he's moving the British Military Jets in particular over to the Middle East at the moment. There's a new special operation taking place as we speak. Um, some of the, some other countries we're also looking to do similar, so we're seeing a repeat of the 1973. Oil crisis if there was an OPEC embargo, do I think that might happen? Uh, not likely, but it's always possible. It could happen. What happened? Gas lines rationing speed limits imposed to, uh, conserve fuel. We only need that. We've already got that in the uk. What's that? 20 miles per hour. I think Inflation soared. Economic stagnation set in that caused stagflation. Yes. The worst of the worst major western recession came in by. 74 to 75, we saw a shift in global power as well because these, these oil producing nations gained all of this influence. When they did that, we saw geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, increased us focus on energy independence, which you are taking advantage of now in the us. So you saw the Alaska oil fields, et cetera, places like that. Next example, 1979. Oil shock. This was the Iranian revolution. The oil price went from$15 a barrel to over 39 uh, dollars a barrel. So it wasn't quite as severe as 73, but it was still a big shock at the time. So this is when the Iranian revolution overthrew the Shah. They disrupted oil exports and they sparked panics in the markets as well. So this was a second wave of stagflation, so they'd just gone over that first wave, a second wave hit the US and Western Europe. This is one, uh, another part of the seventies and eighties period where you just saw. Chaotic scenes, and I bet you if I was a well, I was alive back then, but if I was me streaming back then, you'd have seen the same reactions by the way. You'd seen people go, oh, this guy's an alarmist. That'll never happen. You know, you are never gonna see anything like that. And this is severe compared to what I'm talking about could happen today. You think of what happened in the seventies and eighties. This went on for a lot. This went on for years. Years of huge interest rates. Some people had 17% interest rates on their mortgage. You had. Just tremendous inflation rates. You had, people couldn't afford food. You, you saw an unemployment, you saw all sorts of stuff that is extreme compared to what I'm talking about here. You saw the collapse of, uh, do you remember, um, president Carter, his presidency collapse. That's when Ronald Reagan came in. There was a huge public anger at the time to a lot of these things. The, we then had the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan that was in, uh, sort of. It was followed in late 1979 with, uh, you know, the, the whole Cold War escalation. At the time we had Carter Doctrine, uh, asserting military control over the Persian Gulf, if if needed. Okay. Then we had number three. This was the 1990 oil spike. This was the first Gulf War. What happened?$17 a barrel all the way up to$46 a barrel. Iraq invaded Kuwait. There was fears that Saddam Hussein would seize the Saudi oil fields, and of course everything all kicked off them. There was a a a a sharp global recession. It was quite brief, but that was the early 1990s. George Bush, George. HW Bush, shall I say launch Operation Desert Storm, uh, to liberate Q eight? Or was it to protect the oil fields? Was it over oil? No, it was to liberate Q eight. Of course. No, it was, it is always oil ladies and gents. Oil is always what these wars are over. Massive US military buildup in the Gulf, long-term US military presence in the region began. Uh, and then we really have the, the fourth one. This was the most recent one I would, no, there was also 2011, you had the Arab Springs, but 2000 2008 was the oil price spike. This was just before the financial crisis. Oil went from$60 all the way up to$147 a barrel. So that's double where we are today. Bear that in mind. And this was, this was, this was serious business. What took place then as well? It hit, uh, excuse me, developing nations the hardest fuel and, and food riots. Do you know how many countries there were? Food and fuel riots in 30 different countries? 30 countries and that was double in the price of oil. There was Haiti, Egypt, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Philippines. These were actual riots. These weren't just, you know, people upset about food. These were food riots. Yeah, we had the 2008 meltdown very shortly afterwards. So you see all these patterns that we're talking about here. It's why you've gotta watch this closely. I think one of the biggest ones though, was 2011. This was the Arab Spring. Uh, the, the real uprising, the Libyan War oil disruption as well. That was$80 to$125 a barrel. So just over 50% increase there. And, uh, NATO actually intervened in Libya as we, as we know. So again, this is, I hope you like that research document I did for you there, but, uh, this is, this is what we've got to look forward to, if that's even the right word. So right now we're sat at$70 a barrel if this really kicks off. It is gonna be bad, but that's why you can take advantage of, of certain things. Tangibles, there's a lot of other tangible assets that you can jump on, like, like gold and, and other things. Um, there's a lot to, there's a lot you can, you can do here, but I wanted to just talk about the UK then after. The UK and the government said, we're not getting involved. You know, we, we we're not getting involved in this conflict, et cetera. What are they doing now? Starmer almost immediately after saying that, is now moving, uh, UK military to the Middle East, and he's, he was asked flat out, will you get involved? In the, the conflict if, or the war if it escalates. And he says that he wouldn't answer that question because, uh, I've got it here somewhere. He says, uh, it would, it would jeopardize the, uh, it would jeopardize our position. Well, he's basically just told, told them everything. The answer's yes. He's trying not to jeopardize our position, but he's already said it in his language. So the UK is moving these jets now. Um, he's refusing to rule it out. I mean, let me know in the comments, what do you think of that? Do you think the UK should get involved in this conflict? And, and if you do, please, uh, sort of say why. I, I'd like to, I'd like to read your comments as to why, if you do think they should get involved. Why they should get involved. Um, exactly. What do you think would be the, the, the benefit to the UK of, of that? Or do you think it's just the right thing to do to get involved and, um, defend Israel? I mean, I'd love to know your comments so I can see how, how you think. A lot of my subscribers, but a lot of, uh, a lot of military analysts have warned. That if this does take place, the British bases in the region will be targeted. In fact, Tehran's already said that they will target British bases if they get involved. Stama said, I will always make the right decisions for the uk. Really, really. Do you think he's really making the right decisions for the UK with all the, um, stuff going on at the moment in the uk? I, I, I, I, I mean, I think that's a, a weird statement. I. He said, we're moving all of the, all of our military assets to the region for contingency plan. I'm not sure what his contingency plan is, but just remember, they can't intercept these ballistic missiles anyway, so exactly what they're gonna be moving all these. Assets into the position for I, I, I have no idea. I couldn't tell you why they're moving these assets. If they can't, they haven't got the technology to intercept ballistic missiles, uh, these Iranian ballistic missiles. And in fact, you saw some of these missiles now raining down, uh, in Israel. They can't stop some of them as well. They can, I mean, the drones are quite, I wouldn't say they're easy to intercept, but they are. They're pretty, they're a lot easier, but these ballistic missiles are not easy to intercept. You watch some of the videos, you listen to the military analysts on, on this, and you can see why they're so fast and they move very quickly. It's very difficult to shoot these things, shoot these things down, and it didn't surprise me at all. That Iran sent, what was it, a hundred drones and, and things like that. First, I think that was just to use up a lot of these defensive missiles so they could send in, I mean, I'm sure these people know what they're doing, who are in the military and, and, and doing all this stuff, but you know, some of it's just crazy. Uh, truly. So Stama has talked with the Saudi Crown, prince Mohammed bin Salman at Downing Street, and they both agreed that they're gonna try and create some form of calm. Um, president, president Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor. Uh, and the US president have all had a call, uh, to dis this is, some of this stuff is really bizarre. What's going on at the moment really is, I mean, there's so much we could talk about today. The US aircraft, uh, US has just sent their aircraft carrier as well. They've just headed from west, from the South China Sea to the Middle East, so. They are sending a fleet. It says here they're looking to send, uh, part of the Pacific fleet to the region. So obviously there's something, there's something really serious kicking off here. And the, the, the big one I thought that was funny was they were leading with headlines, UK petrol prices are set to rise. This is what they think is the biggest story at the moment. By five pence a liter. I mean, I wouldn't say that is the biggest story of the day, ladies and gents. I wouldn't get distracted by five pence a liter, um, over the next couple of months, but that, that's what some of these news articles think is the big, big, big story at the moment. But I think, we'll, we'll wrap it up there, we'll wrap it up there. Uh, just a remind about the gold and silver program, if that is of interest to you, especially if you've got pensions or you are worried about the stock market, that that will just teach you everything. It even talks about diversification across the stock markets as well, um, and how you can do that. We, we also go into pensions and rollovers and all sorts of things, so there's a lot for you to. To do, a lot to learn, but it is, um, you know, as always, I break it down very simply so you can learn this stuff very quickly. Uh, there's two courses, of course. You don't need to get the whole bundle, the bundle's just where you save a lot of money. You can get just the foundation course investing course, you can get the advanced course, which goes into all the advanced stuff on pensions and trading, everything else. So just get the course which you think is right for you. But yes, the Rapid Cash Flow Program for those of you would be entrepreneurs and, uh, has closed now. Um, we don't have any plans to bring that back on sale for the time being, uh, but you still got time to get the gold and silver program. And apart from that, thanks for being a subscriber here. I hope today's video was useful. Uh, take care. God bless you. God bless your family, and I'll see you on the next one. I.